The air is getting crisp. The summer days are fading. That means basketball is around the corner, and in Detroit, the Pistons will soon embark on a critical season.
There can’t be 17 wins again. A budding star needs to make himself known. Youth is still prevalent on the roster, but that didn’t stop other organizations from taking a leap last season. Detroit, a legacy franchise, must plant the seeds this season for a better life moving forward.
Advertisement
To discuss what needs to happen for the Pistons to turn a corner this upcoming campaign, I’ve enlisted The Athletic’s Sam Vecenie to provide a national perspective on the most important factors that’ll determine an improved season for Detroit. From Cade Cunningham’s return to Jalen Duren’s upside, several players will need to show improvement for the Pistons to be seen as a real threat in the not-too-distant future.
Let’s get into it.
We know Cade Cunningham’s development is going to determine if the Pistons become better. So which area of growth do you think is most important this season: a higher 3-point percentage on higher volume or improving turnovers and showing he can be a lead ballhandler?
Vecenie: It’s 100 percent right that Cunningham’s play this season is the critical factor for the Pistons. We have extremely positive signs about how that is going to go following his performances at Team USA camp this summer. But Cunningham is the centerpiece of the rebuild, and the NBA is a star-driven league — and has arguably never been more star-driven than it is now. It’s hard to find teams that don’t have a proven star or a potential star. For the Pistons to make that leap, Cunningham needs to be the guy.
In terms of your question, it’s the turnovers for me. I’m assuming Cunningham will have the ball in his hands a ton this season and act as the primary playmaker. Maybe there will be moments when Jaden Ivey gets to run the show. Cunningham will play with Monté Morris, and Morris will be the nominal “point guard” on the court. But Cunningham will be the guy. And to iron out his efficiency, the turnovers need to keep dropping.
While Cunningham has always been a high-level processor of the game and smart operator out of ball screens, turnovers have always been a huge part of the equation too. He averaged four per game at Oklahoma State and has struggled in his two NBA seasons. He should be allowed to run the show, and with that comes turnovers from just being aggressive. But the turnovers when he gets too loose with the ball need to go. He’ll fail to recognize a dig coming from the opposite wing, or he’s just too lackadaisical with the ball.
This is a great example from a game last season against Milwaukee. Jevon Carter is an annoying, pesky defender. But this is one where Carter doesn’t even get a hand in there. Cunningham just dribbles it off Carter’s foot, and it results in a turnover.
These things happen just a bit too often, but I do think it’s fixable. To compare it to another sport, it’s not like he’s a quarterback making a late read with the ball because he doesn’t see the linebacker cutting underneath. It’s more like getting your steps right on your drop and consistently getting your base underneath you before you throw.
Advertisement
He’ll get tighter with his handle, just like most quarterbacks get tighter with their footwork. Bigger, non-fixable dribbling issues tend to do with hip flexibility and the acceleration/deceleration combination. But Cunningham decelerates well enough and is flexible enough through his hips to be able to maneuver.
We’ve seen Cunningham hit 3-point shots at a high enough level before, so I have little doubt he will. But unnecessary turnovers have always been an issue for him, so that should be the top priority.
From your point of view, how does new coach Monty Williams improve this team immediately?
Vecenie: I think it’ll be enormous if only because Williams is loved by most players league-wide and is known to have a calming presence. The Phoenix Suns took an enormous leap when Williams arrived, and he has a ton of experience.
Williams has worked with playmakers throughout his career. He got the most out of Devin Booker, a player I think shares a number of traits athletically with Cunningham. Williams put the ball in Booker’s hands and allowed him to create and make things happen. Booker improved immensely as a decision-maker and passer under Williams.
Williams also was on the Portland staff from 2005 to 2010 when Brandon Roy had his breakout seasons with the Blazers. Roy was another attack-minded player who got it done by playing at his pace as opposed to using explosiveness. I think Williams is among the best choices in the league to be the coach who gets the most out of Cunningham.
Beyond that, Williams’ teams in Phoenix figured out how to make it work with two lead guards on the court, which is something the Pistons will need to learn with Cunningham and Ivey. To start, both of them need to improve as shooters off the catch — something Ivey did last season by hitting 36.8 percent of his catch-and-shoot 3s.
Advertisement
Williams also played a huge role in the development of Deandre Ayton and helped Mikal Bridges get the most out of his game as a secondary playmaker. Duren has many of the same tools that Ayton possesses, and while Ausar Thompson is nowhere near the shooter Bridges is, he is capable and has elite instincts on the defensive end.
I loved the Williams hire. The price tag certainly raised a few eyebrows, but it’s not my money. As long as the ownership group doesn’t use this contract as an excuse in the future to not go into the tax to retain and bolster this core of players when they’re ready to contend, I think this will work out well for Detroit.
GO DEEPER
Edwards: Does Troy Weaver have another Pistons trade up his sleeve?
After Cunningham, which player’s growth/impact is most important for Detroit to be a team in the hunt for a Play-In Tournament spot?
Vecenie: Purely in terms of importance to wins and losses this season, it’s Duren. I don’t think there is any other possible answer. Ivey is terrific, and I like his upside as a player more than Duren’s in the long term. I feel the same about Thompson. But Duren is almost certainly going to be the team’s starting center, and while he did a lot well last season, he wasn’t good enough defensively to be the anchor of the interior.
Duren’s rebounding and ability to finish around the rim were superb. He’s absolutely a starting center of the future for the Pistons, and if his defense works itself out as he gets more reps and experience, he has some All-Star potential due to his size, length and overall athletic profile.
But if last season’s video is any indication, Duren has work to do because he still plays like a teenager rotationally and during ball-screen coverages. But that’s OK; he is a teenager and has a promising future. But if we’re talking about wins and losses this season and Duren playing a lot of minutes — which seems to be where things are heading — there needs to be substantial growth.
The easiest way to describe Duren’s defense last season is that he just was not that disruptive. He played passively, as if things were moving a million miles an hour and he was trying to process it all. He also had a tendency to play flat-footed and was often late to react to what was happening around him. Opponents shot over 60 percent at the rim against him last season. His block rate was 21st out of the 39 centers last season to play at least 20 minutes per game. That looks average on its face, but among the 21 centers last season from that group with a 20 percent usage rate or lower, Duren’s block rate saw him rank just 15th, per dunksandthrees.com. That lack of usage mixed with a high turnover rate and low block rate was a huge reason Duren finished just 38th out of 39 centers in Estimated Plus-Minus.
In ball screens, his passiveness resulted in a lot of pull-up jumpers in front of him where he wasn’t contesting in a meaningful way. Around the rim, Duren was often a step late and didn’t quite make the most of his immense size. It’s fair to say he just didn’t have a ton of anticipation.
In this clip against Boston last season, Sam Hauser curls around a stagger screen, and Duren is not ready to help in any way. He reacts late, and the result is a Hauser layup.
Duren also needs to improve his communication. The Pistons had a ton of defensive breakdowns last season with miscommunications involving him, and it often looks like he’s a bit late talking. Again, this is totally normal for young players. It’s a natural process for backline defenders to find their voice as they work to call out coverages and screens.
Here’s a good example from late in the season. It’s harsh because it involves Eugene Omoruyi and R.J. Hampton, both of whom were late additions to the team. But this kind of breakdown just can’t happen. Hampton and Duren are not communicating their way through this coverage.
As we can see by the first screen, the Pistons are running a drop scheme on ball screens during this possession with Duren in the middle. On the second screen, Duren does his job and cuts off the angle. Omoruyi does his too by digging to the elbow to slow down Franz Wagner’s drive. Hampton gets crushed on this screen, but the other two do enough to give him time to recover. Watch Omoruyi slide out to the wing where his responsibility is Paolo Banchero before he recognizes the disaster.
Advertisement
Neither Hampton nor Duren has come back to guard the ball. Hampton switches to Goga Bitadze, and Duren recovers backward in drop coverage. My guess given the coverage of the previous screen is that this is Hampton’s blunder. He had time to recover due to the excellent Omoruyi dig, which is why Duren didn’t execute the switch.
But these miscues occur most when a team isn’t talking. And on such a young team, the center needs to be the captain of the defense and overcommunicate.
As a general defender, Duren has a tendency to leave his feet too often. Sometimes it’s at the rim when he is rotating across and there is already a defender there, allowing for a dump-off pass to his man.
Other times it’s like this, where he is guarding Jalen Smith — who shot 28 percent from 3 last season — and he bites on a pump fake, allowing Smith to attack his front foot and get to the rim.
The Pistons experimented and gave Duren a lot of reps in space late last season against perimeter players by having him defend fours in lineups with Marvin Bagley and James Wiseman. The results weren’t great.
In total, the Pistons ended up playing Duren with either Wiseman or Bagley for about 250 minutes, most of which occurred late in the season. Then, the organization also played Duren next to Wiseman for a majority of his two summer-league games.
I can’t emphasize enough how much I dislike that philosophically. In the grand scheme, it’s small potatoes and I get it. But it’s also in the ballpark of 250 to 300 minutes worth of live-ball reps at the five that Duren lost out on to experiment with top picks who have not showcased nearly the upside that he has.
It’s not the kind of thing that will hinder Duren’s growth because his ceiling remains high on that end due to his physical tools. He has a lot of work to do and is set to play a large role. Stemming the tide of the defensive miscommunications as well as eliminating some of the detail-oriented mistakes is so critical for the Pistons to become a better defensive team after they finished 28th in the league last season. To me, that makes Duren the most critical player on the team other than Cunningham.
Advertisement
Would you start Ausar Thompson immediately? And if so, does he take the place of Bojan Bogdanović or Isaiah Stewart?
Vecenie: If the goal is to win games and make the Play-In Tournament, I would not. I’d leave it open and let him compete for such a spot. If he performs well during training camp and preseason and earns such a role, by all means. But I wouldn’t go in anticipating that as my plan.
For Cunningham to develop offensively, he needs shooters around him, which could help his handle and limit turnovers. The shooters also would help space the floor, help him around the rim and allow him to make plays with the ball as a natural passer.
Thompson is not a shooter at this point. He has potential by working on his mechanics, but NBA opponents will not treat him as a shooter early by closing out on him. Teams also won’t close on Stewart or Ivey, and Duren is a non-spacer. Playing Thompson as a starter would lead to a clogged court.
If Detroit is set on starting Thompson, my first choice would be to start him ahead of Ivey and go for the best defensive infrastructure around Duren while maintaining a modicum of shooting and spacing by keeping Bogdanović in the lineup. But again, that wouldn’t be my choice.
My plan would be to try to maximize a Cunningham-led offense. I’d start Alec Burks over Stewart and make Stewart a super sub big who still plays 26 to 28 minutes per game. That allows me to minimize the Bagley and Wiseman minutes and mix and match throughout the game depending on the situation.
But I also get the impression the organization has a different view of Bagley and Wiseman. Beyond that, Burks is good. He likes to handle the ball and get into his pull-up game a bit more than might be ideal when playing next to Cunningham and Ivey. But he’s a consistent 40 percent 3-point shooter. Plus, with Morris around now, his instant offense might not be as needed in the second unit.
I’m expecting the team will go with Cunningham, Ivey, Bogdanović, Stewart and Duren and see what that leads to early on. That allows Morris to lead what could be an awesome bench unit with him, Burks, Thompson and one of the bigs. The team also has Isaiah Livers and Marcus Sasser, both of whom have a real chance to earn playing time. For the first time in the Cunningham era, the Pistons have options and real depth. It’s a good problem to have.
Advertisement
The lineup I’m looking forward to seeing most this season is Cunningham with two of Burks, Harris, Livers, Sasser or Morris; Bogdanović and then one of the bigs. I am fascinated to see Cunningham surrounded with a lineup that features legitimate shooters on offense. Not just guys like Ivey who can nail catch-and-shoot 3-pointers, but players who are respected by NBA defenses as great shooters to whom you have to stay attached when they space from 3. We haven’t seen that yet in Cunningham’s career. Give him the kind of lineups Dallas has given Luka Dončić throughout his career, and find out what Cunningham can be on offense as the primary playmaker.
GO DEEPER
Pistons mailbag: What does Detroit's offseason additions mean for Killian Hayes?
Let’s say the Pistons get 65-70 games out of Cunningham: Do you project them as a Play-In Tournament team?
Vecenie: I don’t think I would project them as a Play-In Tournament team. I just have too many questions about the defense. But I wouldn’t rule it out as a potential outcome if things go right for them, Duren develops on defense, and the vets like Bogdanović, Morris and Burks have the kind of impact we’ve seen from them in recent years.
I believe Cunningham is the real deal. If he performs in the way I think he’s capable of, the Pistons will be much improved. It’s just an enormous leap to go from 17 wins to the 38-40 wins that will be necessary to reach the Play-In Tournament. It feels a lot more reasonable to expect something like 30-35 wins and be happy with anything beyond that.
(Photo of Cade Cunningham and Jalen Duren: Jesse D. Garrabrant / NBAE via Getty Images)